Who benefits from an oil boom? Evidence from a unique Alaskan data set

Oil booms have been shown to increase local employment and wages. But these effects reflect the aggregated experience of residents, commuters, and recent migrants alike. This paper takes advantage of a unique data set that identifies a rich set of labor market outcomes by place of residence, rather than by place of work. Exploiting this feature of the data, we examine the effect of a major oil boom on employment and wage outcomes in the North Slope Borough of Alaska. This analysis is juxtaposed with a more conventional one that uses place-of-work data collected from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Using the Synthetic Control Method, we find that the oil boom of the late 2000s significantly increased non-residential employment. While the boom caused residential employment to shift from the public to the private sector, total residential employment was unaffected. There is weak evidence that residential wages increased in response to the boom. These results are important as drilling decisions are often negotiated locally by interest groups that might be less concerned with general equilibrium effects.     

房价对居民消费的跨空间影响*——基于中国278个城市空间面板数据的实证研究

本文首先基于住房财富效应，构建了房价变动对居民消费的跨空间影响的分析框架。该框架阐释了住房财富效应的区域差异：不同地区间房价的空间传导、居民的异地消费以及消费的示范效应，使得本地房价变动可能引起周边地区居民消费的连锁反应。其后，本文利用中国278个地级市2000—2018年数据，通过空间面板杜宾模型，实证考察了不同地区住房财富效应的差异，以及房价变动对居民消费的跨空间影响。结果显示：（1）虽然中国整体上存在住房财富效应，但西部城市财富效应并不显著，并且核心城市还存在负财富效应。（2）不同城市间房价对消费存在跨区影响。东部城市和核心城市对周边城市消费的正向影响很显著，而边缘城市则对周边城市消费有显著的负向影响。（3）不同城市间的消费也具有空间上的示范效应。最后，本文从房价和居民消费空间联动的视角，为政府扩大内需、调控房地产市场提供了相关政策建议。     

基础设施对中国经济增长的影响及机制研究*——基于扩展的Barro增长模型

基础设施既可以作为特殊的资本存量直接促进经济增长，又可以通过促进投资和劳动力增加（增加生产要素数量）以及提高存量资本和劳动力的边际生产率（提高生产要素效率）间接促进经济增长。本文构建了一个扩展的Barro经济增长模型，并利用中国1992—2016年省级面板数据和中介效应模型对两条机制进行实证检验。结果发现：基础设施对经济增长具有促进作用，但对交通、能源、通信三类基础设施的影响以及在2008年金融危机前后均表现出异质性。直接效应呈动态上升趋势，中介效应则逐渐下降。针对异质性的原因，本文进一步采用非线性模型进行检验。结果表明我国基础设施对经济增长的促进作用主要表现为规模扩张型、数量型或外延型，而不是以质量型和内涵型为主的形式。能源和通信基础设施对经济增长的总效应具有规模效应，交通基础设施的规模效应不显著，但也对经济增长具有持续促进作用。这说明目前我国三类基础设施仍然具有较大投资潜力。其中的关键是要通过基础设施建设提高生产要素效率。     

《经济地理》创刊以来的知识溢出特征与变化

基于引证关系,利用知识图谱、社会网络分析等方法,对1981—2019年《经济地理》创刊以来知识溢出的特征与变化规律进行分析。经济地理学研究的专业综合性、学科交叉性特点,在《经济地理》期刊知识溢出的特征与变化中得以充分诠释。期刊知识溢出的作用与变化,不仅体现在促进作者合作网络形成与机构合作关系的深化上,也体现在对城市化、区域经济发展、区域旅游发展等研究领域的推动作用与变化上。期刊知识溢出的特征与变化在其主题构成、作者贡献、机构力量与前沿引领等的探讨中进一步得以明确。具体地,城市化研究的知识溢出作用,从城市化和城镇化、土地利用、生态环境等方面,逐渐转向新型城镇化、城市网络、生态环境、协调发展等主题;区域经济发展研究的知识溢出作用,经历了从经济联系转向产业集群、再转向空间相互作用关系的主题变化;区域旅游发展研究的知识溢出作用,则从旅游资源、旅游业、生态旅游等方面,逐步转向乡村旅游、旅游经济与协调发展等主题。以国家战略与发展政策为主要导向,促进国内经济地理学的研究与发展,是《经济地理》期刊知识溢出的核心内容与集中反映。     

制度变迁下国有商业银行农村服务网络演化——以农业银行兰考县支行为例

经济转轨背景下农村的银行服务网络呈现出不同于城市的演化特征。从制度变迁角度建构分析框架,基于历史、调查与访谈数据,以农业银行兰考县支行为例,探讨我国商业银行农村服务网络演化动力机制。研究表明:国有商业银行农村服务网络经历了恢复成立后的快速扩张和密集的人工网点服务,市场化改革中农村业务收缩和大规模网点撤并,到新时期人工、自助、电子、代理等多元服务渠道扩张;农村银行服务网络演化是商业银行和制度环境相互作用的空间过程,普惠金融战略下我国特别强调金融服务的均等化和基础金融网点的全覆盖,商业银行不断借助新的伙伴关系开拓农村市场,其中合作代理日益发挥重要作用。不同地区、不同商业银行农村服务网络模式的差异,农村银行服务网络转型对农村社会经济发展、金融生态环境改善、农民金融素养提升的影响等还需进一步研究。     

湖南省研发投入的空间格局与创新协调发展对策

以湖南省14个市州为研究对象,运用首位度分析、ESDA探索性空间数据分析方法,研究湖南省各市州的研发投入(R&D经费、R&D人员投入)空间差异变化趋势和空间分异特征。结果表明:①湖南省内各市州R&D经费投入差距在逐渐缩小,但R&D人员投入差距在逐渐增大;②湖南省的R&D经费及R&D人员投入在各个市州之间存在明显的空间依赖及空间集聚现象,并在西部、南部周边市州呈现出大面积的低水平连片聚集特征;③湖南省R&D投入的空间演变特征并不显著,长株潭作为省会中心城市圈缺乏辐射带动力。研究最后提出了湖南省科技创新协同发展的对策建议。     

基于数字足迹的乡村旅游流空间结构特征--以浙江省湖州市为例

乡村旅游是乡村振兴的有效路径,也是近年来研究热点,而在乡村旅游流领域研究相对不足。以湖州乡村旅游地为案例,通过对大样本数字足迹的数据处理,分析乡村旅游流空间结构特征,总结空间行为偏好。结果表明:①乡村旅游数字足迹呈现全年双峰值、月度差异不大的时间特征,"双核"多组团的空间分布特征,以及古镇、古村、民宿等带有文化符号旅游景观导向的空间偏好特征;②网络密度0.27的乡村旅游流空间结构由连接度高的34个节点构成,除核心吸引的双核外,民宿集聚区构成了网络结构的核心点;③传统旅游吸引物、民宿集聚区等节点呈现较强的网络中心性,节点的网络结构特征反映乡村旅游流空间呈现的地理临近性,以及区域空间集聚、扩散与联动发展效应。依据研究结论提出"完善与发挥节点集聚扩散功能,增强节点对数字足迹的有效吸引力,提升乡村旅游经济发展质量,助力乡村振兴"的发展策略。     

The real effects of a new accounting standard: the case of IFRS 15 Revenue from Contracts with Customers

International Financial Reporting Standard 15 (IFRS 15) Revenue from Contracts with Customers has significantly changed the philosophy of revenue recognition, not only to provide a fairer representation of corporate revenues, but also to inhibit the use of revenues for ‘earnings management’ purposes. We provide a framework to analyse the various effects of new and amended accounting standards. Changes in how companies recognise, measure, present and disclose their revenues (accounting effects) can affect how companies and their transactions are understood, both internally and externally (information effects), can change security prices (capital market effects) and can change how companies operate, and their costs and cash flows (real effects). We provide empirical evidence, based on a review of corporate annual reports, comment letters and interviews, on the effects of IFRS 15. We find evidence of accounting, information and, to a lesser extent, real effects, although, outside a few industries, IFRS 15 has had relatively little impact on the recognition and measurement of revenue.     

How Does Using a Mobile Device Change Investors’ Reactions to Firm Disclosures?

I examine how characteristics of investors’ information access tools change investors’ reactions to firm disclosures. I examine my research question in the context of information choice (i.e., allowing investors to choose the order of information and sections to read within a disclosure) and spatial layout (i.e., how information is displayed when viewing the disclosure). Results of an experiment are consistent with information choice improving investors’ judgments if the disclosure is viewed on a computer screen. Conversely, and consistent with cognitive overload, information choice harms investors’ judgments if the disclosure is viewed on a smaller screen, such as that of a mobile device. Follow-up experiments show that changing the disclosure presentation to reduce the need to scroll is one way to improve investors’ judgments on a smaller (or mobile) screen. My findings caution firms and regulators about expanding information choice within disclosures without considering the screen size used to access the disclosure.     

Asymmetric volatility spillovers between economic policy uncertainty and stock markets: Evidence from China

This study explores the spillovers between economic policy uncertainty (EPU) and stock market realized volatility (RV). The monthly index of Chinese and US EPU and RV are used to analyze the pairwise directional spillovers. We find that RV is a net receiver that is more vulnerable to shocks from U.S. EPU than to shocks from Chinese EPU. We further decompose the RV into good and bad volatility to test the asymmetric spillover effect between the stock market and EPU. The results suggest that EPU has a bigger effect on bad volatility in the stock market throughout most of the sample period. However, we find that good volatility spillovers become larger during periods of stimulated reform, whereas bad volatility spillovers become larger during periods of international disputes. We show that Chinese stock market volatility is sensitive to both U.S. and Chinese EPU and that the spillover is asymmetric in different periods.